A near-average hurricane season is expected across the Atlantic this year, according to new research from North Carolina State University, with 12 to 15 named storms forecast to develop.

Of those storms, six to nine could strengthen into hurricanes, and two to three could become major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher.

The outlook is largely in line with recent years. Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, said the average from 1994 to 2025 is 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Researchers expect activity in the Gulf of Mexico to be near average, with two to five named storms possible. One to two of those could become hurricanes, and one could reach major hurricane strength. The Gulf typically averages three named storms and two hurricanes per season.

The Caribbean Sea is forecast to see slightly below-average activity, with one to three named storms expected. One to two could become hurricanes, with the potential for one major hurricane. The long-term average for the region is five named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.

The forecast is based on more than 100 years of historical hurricane data, including storm position and intensity, along with environmental factors such as weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.

Xia Sun led this year’s forecast, with contributions from Jack Skari.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.